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Comments on Financial Culture: Long live Inflation! Reality is never Denied. Central Bankers are still trying to figure out what has already happened. The beginning of a major shift in markets has already happened. Such Trends are simply the unfolding of the obvious. The Timing remain for more weakness in Q4. My old friend Jerome knows how to raise rates. I hope he has read: “The History of Interest Rates,” by Sidney Homer. Randy Forsyth of Barron’s and I discussed some time ago how Rates rose for 100 years in Rome!
Meta Market Semiotics: Oh, Inflation & Rates are Rising? We knew that but didn’t cognize it? Investors don’t understand the historical degree of this corrective process. This is more than a War Market.
EQUITY STRATEGY: Stocks are in a notable correction. The ‘Lapdance of Liquidity’ initiated an Inflation which is translating into a Hyperinflation. Q3 & Q4 offer another defined corrective period. Wars never end well nor will 2022.
EQUITY TACTICS: Stocks put in dramatic lows on the two 0% bullish.
GLOBAL EQUITIES: Still troubled. Bounces going nowhere important.
FIXED INCOME: Expected secular “Bull Trap” continues. No surprises.
FOREX: Dollar broke out but a larger pattern for a Fall Fall is brewing.
COMMODITIES: Markets “Knew” Inflation was coming. “It isn’t over.” Stuff will be bid. Crypto “Stagnant.”
ENERGY: “Gas is still more bullish.”
EQUITY SENTIMENT: The Bullish Complacency of last year was abandoned as inevitable realities emerged. Sentiment reached an initial extreme in February. Bounces from there resolved into another correction. Sentiment is again offering strength from a pessimistic nadir.
QQQ Weekly: The Tech Correction has been sizable. The scale of this decline infers those secular changes are still occurring. Spring bounces resolved into another leg down which is leading to decent bounces. But more declines are still due later in this calendar year. Bid? But not in a hurry
GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: German Equities remain corrective. Profiles allow for a bit more Recoveries this Summer but Q3/Q4 are still due to be negative. But the downside levels of say 12,500 do seem like structural support. Bounces can come and go during Wars.
Volatility: (VIX) Profile: VIX is still in a congestion. An uptrend from its extended base continues to favor eventual Upside potential. Uncertainty isn’t going away. Be a bidder. A Q4, VIX extreme is due.
TACTICAL SENTIMENT: The DORSEY Market Sentiment generated extremely high bullish sentiment over the last year. Complacency was rife. The harsh declines produced mini panics. The double 0% daily sentiment readings do signal a tactical price catharsis allowing ranges.
DAILY EQUITY PROFILE: The IWM continues to tell what the overall Equity Markets is doing. The recovery has been welcome but already looks tired. This reinforces an overall bear trend. Still, it may signal the beginning of some Summer ranges and a hiatus of Selling.
FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: Ho Hum. ‘Rates Rising for Decades.’ Maybe many decades. Obscene Liquidity was, structurally negligent. Repeat: “First Rate high due near 2024.” Central Bankers are now playing games they are assuming. As advised: “Rates going to 3%- 3.25%. Be prepared.” Inflation is Real. Sit back and watch it @ work.
FIXED INCOME TACTICS: Treasuries have been in a trending function which is best described as, headed lower. TLT has, as expected, continued a slow and steady decline towards Reality. Talking Heads keep explaining it?! Global Tightening is the Reality. Bounces are Fine.
GDX Profiles: Reflation, as allowed, is still segueing towards Hyperinflation. Precious Metals profiles preferred: “Generically bid, inferring Gold due to strengthen into April.” That gave way to a great rejection. Gold is now close to forming another interim low next 2 weeks. Potential for a Fall rally.
FOREX DIAGNOSIS: The Dollar has entered an overt break out. The Rising Rate Reality was obviously supportive and allowed for
overt bidding persistence. But that story tires. Fall Fall for the Dollar.
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