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|COMMENTS ON FINANCIAL CULTURE: Long live Inflation! Central Bankers are desperate to get, ‘Woke.’ Repeat: “Is this the beginning of Hyper Inflation! Uncertainty only reveals itself when it does. Never blithely Believe what you are told by talking heads. They are paid to talk. Not to Understand.
META MARKET SEMIOTICS: Keep it simple. Inflation is Here. A BEAR MARKET phase has been, is and will continue into 2022. This is RISK OFF.
The Market Scape: As I advised: Rate Rises were always going to happen & “Covid,” will keep morphing into more uncertainties. Inflation can get Hyper. Markets can crack.” Indeed: “Tis time for some dire Recognition?” Indeed.
Perceptions: Central Bankers understand it all and are in control. NO. The Teleprompters have plenty of comforting memes. NO. Neuroplasticity wins
EQUITY STRATEGY: The profile suggested important declines late this year. Yep. Seasonal’s be dammed. Next low due in February/March 2022. We are headed there now. STOCKS ARE CORRECTING. The ‘Lap-dance of Liquidity’ transitioned into a ‘Transitory’ ‘Inflation,’ which is no longer ’Transitory?”
EQUITY TACTICS: Stocks are in a Bear Market. December is not friendly.
GLOBAL EQUITIES: Continued corrective behavior into early 2022.
FIXED INCOME: The expected secular “Bull Trap” continues…slowly
FOREX: Dollar appears to still be subject to ranges but s ore uncertain.
COMMODITIES: Commodities “Knew” Inflation was coming all along and is not done. Crypto may surprise by stagnating. CRUDE: Energy is bullish.
EQUITY SENTIMENT: Complacency recycled up again. Why? Folks have a habit of loving stocks, no matter what. Sentiment warned of a coming comeuppance. It has only just begun. Give investors time to reflect on their coming losses as we keep declining into next year.
S&P Weekly: The stock market has a new meme. Louche Liquidity has been dethroned. Inflation has been Recognized. Even Jerome says it is so. The Weekly pattern is negative and may take various shapes. Please not that there is a possibility of a resonance with this pattern below.
TACTICAL SENTIMENT: The DORSEY Market Sentiment continued to generate high bullish readings until it didn’t. This strange toxic complacency did resolve into a Reality. The recent breaks with 1% & 2% sentiment are not bullish. They are a tell of a new market phase.
DAILY EQUITY PROFILE: The Russell (IWM) has demonstrated classic bear behavior. Listen to it. A breakout teased on the upside then fell to earth and gapped below key support. What a Bear. Enjoy it. Buy into the expected February March low always due in 2002.
GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: German Equities executed a defined topping process and had a final spike up. Yes, it can bounce from tactical support but the interim pattern is definitely lower into February/March of 2022. The Dax really is at risk. Do not play any games.
Volatility: (VIX) Profile: VIX was only biding its time by holding extended structural Support. Look at it now! Noted: “Uncertainty can never be perpetually out of season.” Bear Market Stocks favor it.
FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: Repeat: “Rates Will Rise for Decades.” Obscene Liquidity was structurally negligent. An initial interim rate high is due in 2024. Central Bankers only play the games that they think they know how to play. Rates are headed for 3%-3.25%. 2022 could yet become dynamic. Beware. Inflation is sticking around.
FIXED INCOME TACTICS: Treasuries are being bombarded by positioning due to tactical reactions. The problem is that their destiny is definitely lower. When? Maybe not right now? They may just subtly grind lower. Talking Heads will keep explaining all the taper talk for us.
CRUDE OIL STRATEGY: Crude has already had an amazing rally from early 2020. I had allowed how bullish this space was. Repeat: “Commodities are structurally open to much higher prices. This could turn out to be an Inflation like no other.” Energy has corrected but it is still explosive. Crude strength in 2022 may be Hyper.
CRYPTO: Bitcoin Weekly: Bitcoin had a wonderful profiled in Mid-July. I allowed that there was ‘Whoosh Risk.’ There was. Then Profiles preferred some shaky trade. But structural bidding is due in 2022. But, the surprise for both Bulls and Bears may be that December stays flat.
Precious Profiles: Profiles still allow for the Reflation to continue and possibly segue into Hyperinflation. Still, Precious Metals have been relatively underwhelming. But what about stuff like Coffee, Cotton Copper and Aluminum and ETC.. Reflation became Inflation and now, Hyperinflation
FOREX DIAGNOSIS: The Dollar ran all the way up to Key Weekly resistance before reversing. That is probably all the upside for now. Yet with rates still rising, downside is limited. So, it’s just more Ranges.
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