Sentiment Timing Monthly Report-April

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Comments on Financial Culture: Long live Inflation! We will adjust to it. But Hyperinflation? Not so much. Central Bankers are still busy trying to figure out what they don’t know. Uncertainty is only revealed when it is. Markets are telling us something: They are both vulnerable and resilient. Never Believe what you are being told by Talking Heads. They only talk about what they wish they actually knew.

Meta Market Semiotics: Inflation & Rates are Rising. It is only the beginning of something. Equities don’t understand the degree of the correction that they are in.

The Market Scape: April recoveries may only be a refreshing hiatus.

EQUITY STRATEGY: Stocks have had a wonderful correction. The ‘Lap-dance of Liquidity’ created in a ‘Transitory’ Inflation. That in turn may transition into a Hyperinflation? Q2 reprieves but not Q3 & Q4. More woes later.

EQUITY TACTICS: Stocks put in a dramatic low. More sloppy April upside.

GLOBAL EQUITIES: Correction had a dramatic nadir? April recoveries.

FIXED INCOME: Expected secular “Bull Trap” continues to operate.

FOREX: Dollar remains in an expected breakout. It still has a bid bias.

COMMODITIES: Markets “Knew” Inflation was coming. “It isn’t done.” As expected,. Crypto Resurfacing:

CRUDE: “Energy still bullish.”

EQUITY SENTIMENT: Bullish Complacency was abandoned towards the end of last year. Sentiment developed a diverging extreme at end of February. In fact, optimism had perversely blossomed and already achieved ebullience. The profile allows for some imp

QQQ Weekly: The Tech Correction was sizable. Such breaks are rare. They do infer that deep market changes are underway. But the carnage also produced a notable recovery. Both price patterns are telling. It suggests more strength but within the context of more declines due later in this year

TACTICAL SENTIMENT: The DORSEY Market Sentiment generated extremely high bullish sentiment late last year. That complacency gave
way to expected harsh declines which bottomed. Now typical bounces. April looks sloppy with some rays of Shunshine. Or, Sunshine!

DAILY EQUITY PROFILE: The IWM continues to serve as a mirror of demonstrate classic tactical behavior. The recovery bounces from the lows are not impressive at all. Yes, it allows for further strength this Spring but that will likely resolve into more range trade at best.

GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: German Equities declined importantly. The profile allowed for a severe correction. Recovery rallies may even continue as late as July but Q3/Q4 is negative again. While much of the excitement may seem over, this is just a welcome pause.

Volatility: (VIX) Profile: VIX had a wonderful and lawful fling but returned right back to its structural base. Uncertainty never goes out
of style. The VIX is not going to go much lower. It may only range.

FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: Ho Hum. Rates are rising for Decades. Obscene Liquidity was structurally negligent. Next Rate high due near 2024. Central Bankers only play the games they think they know how to play. As advised: “Rates going to 3%-3.25%. 2022 may yet become dynamic. Be Aware. Be prepared. Inflation still trending.

FIXED INCOME TACTICS: Treasuries remain relatively tactical but their destiny remains definitely lower. TLT continues a slow and steady
decline. Don’t worry. Talking Heads will keep explaining it all to us well after it has already happened. Global Tightening is far from over.

GDX Profiles: Reflation suggested to segue into an Hyperinflation. Precious Metals had been underwhelming but profiles argued: ‘Stuff is generically bid.’ Noted for two months: “The timing structure infers Gold is preparing for a move up. Higher into May.” Here we are. I get more cautious as April ages.

FOREX DIAGNOSIS: The Dollar is still in break out mode. As obviously advised: “The Rising Rate Reality supports overt bidding persistence. This upside profile still has more to go, as expected. Still more

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