MARKET COMMENTARY: 10/8/18 by Woody Dorsey:
NEAR TERM: My sentiment registered 16% Bullish today. That is not really a super low number but it fits with the lower trends in all my moving averages of sentiment. This Market Energy fits with a cluster of viral negatives such as China, Rising Rates and the SCOTUS dissonance. This sort of collusive news flow usually happens during a “3” or “C” wave of some degree. I had already noted a secondary low due near dates are for members only Now, that timing code can be elongated to dates are for members only and once that has happened, it is normal to project into dates are for members only Thus, there is more to go. But, it may be by fits and starts as we have already had a good near term tactical move down.
I had written: “FEAR is not really that unusual of a market emotion but it is rare when it becomes viral. All market lows are made on FEAR. Declines into those lows usually happen quickly and do not last very long.” Keep that in dates are for members only Hopefully we will see an extreme sentiment reading typical of FEAR. This note does not address the degree of deterioration in the interim profile. I do find it humorous that pundits are “going off” about the 10 yr. yield when it has already been rising for 5 years as I had already written. The “Lapdance of Liquidity” really is over. In my Stock Bond Ratio Analysis I explained that it takes some time and that stocks may rise for some time before rising yields “matter.” It seems to be time for that but do they know that rates will be rising for a few decades?
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