Here is a quick update we sent out to subscribers at 9:58 this morning. We have to black out some dates-in fairness to our premium subscribers. But you should get a good idea of how to trade the market turns. .
GENERAL TRADING COMMENTS: The trading profile was for weakness into “1/15-1/19.” I want to share with you some thoughts about how to understand the market here. First off, I am always concerned about excessive “Anchoring” on timing dates. Don’t be obsessed with the idea that the market has to turn on any “Date.” It is better to have an idea of an “orb” of time and then watch for signs near that orb. It would seem simple to trade big market extremes. It isn’t.
Markets often become unstable and challenging at these times. That is happening now. It may be wise to gradually reduce positions and take profits as one of these phases unfolds. Thus, one could have taken off say 1/3 of ones’ shorts yesterday on 1/15 and look to take off the rest between now and Tuesday.
The other phenomenon that I have to deal with personally is “knowing” that a Low is coming. There is the risk of cognitive “front-running” in which I look to say buy aggressively on 1/14 into weakness since I know that price action is leading into a Low. In principle it is best to wait until a timing profile fully matures.
The Low might be made today but it could be retested or not show any signs of reversing until sometime next week. I had allowed that given the compound date, option expiry and the Holiday that there could be notable weakness into this weekend. Here we are.
So, go slowly. Unwind or establish positions gradually during the timing orb. Wait for Timing profile to fully to Mature Before becoming Bold.
MARKET TIMING FACTORS: In my timing studies, there is a distinction between a turning point and specific lows like the Black Hole and this one. This is a Compound Decline. Thus the overall weakness from 12/29 is due to have 2 legs down and persist into March.
The degree of recent Market upset and the Swiss Seism may have cognitively altered the prior Gestalt which had been overtly yoked to Global Liquidity. I will be watching for more signs and monthly reversals to confirm that.
For now, this is only a great trade which is concluding.
Sentiment Timing Team
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