MARKET COMMENTARY by Woody Dorsey:
The Sentiment on 12/2 was 93% Bullish. As I noted: “In general it is never a good idea to Buy on High Sentiment.” Today, 12/14, Sentiment is 1% Bullish. Thus, today may not be an ideal time to Sell. However, High Sentiment and Low Sentiment reflect materially different aspects of the Market Brain. Sentiment always has to be diagnosed. Fridays Selling did fit with my profile for a Low last week. But, more importantly, the Degree and Vibration of the Declines infer that a larger degree Market Change has arrived. Interim profiles had allowed that Equities, and assets in general, might simmer and churn and, generally “Behave themselves,” into Dates are for members only
I noted last week that, given that the Price High and Key Reversal from the 93% was only, “2 days old,” the best profile resolution is for generic weakness to persist into 12/10ish. There is overt and obvious support down to the 2025ish level. Thus it may yet turn out that this is more Range Trading. I provide short term profiles within the longer time frames that most investors are focused on.” Now, the decline on 12/11 did something unusual. Prices broke below the prior very low sentiment of 2% on 12/4! That is of “Sentiment Significance!”
I noted that the “Seasonals would NOT be typical this year.” Thus, a downside surprise was expected. But probabilities favored that it would just be more Range trading. I repeat: “Thus, this is not the time for Big Bets and Outsized trading positions.” Let’s see how the trade unfolds for the rest of this 1% Bullish Sentiment Day.
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Information is for paid customers and may not be copied or distributed Copyright 2015