11/01/18 Sentiment Timing Report
MARKET ENVIRONMENT: by Woody Dorsey.
A trading low was due in front of the elections with a robust bounce into Dates Are For Members Only to be followed by another bout of weakness into Dates Are For Members Only There was never a defined low date in this case but the price and concept behavior around the 5% and 3% bullish readings were compelling for an extreme low as noted. I had noted several weeks ago that it made profile sense for heaviness into the elections. It did happen and lasted until few days before hand. That uncertainty was discounted. Additionally, unknown unknowns occurred like, “bomb stuff” and Pittsburgh. The alignment of those with price and sentiment fashioned a nice nadir in risk appetite. Profile is up into Dates Are For Members Only. Lots of new bears want much lower prices but they won’t get them for now.
- Near Term Diagnosis: Sentiment is 83% Bullish today.
- Interim Term Diagnosis: Many factors argue that a cogent Interim High is in place. As noted, this allowed a new vibration of trending function to occur. The 10/29 low is now compelling but there is potential for another interim in Dates Are For Members Only.
- Long Term Diagnosis: Repeat: “Equities have likely registered a durable High. That is not necessarily relevant to trading decisions. The next Low is due in 2022.”
QUESTIONS ANYONE? “I read “There is a low due in 2022”. Does it mean that S&P will fall up to 2022 within one year? Also, I see ““I still foresee a notable relief rally in November. “. Will the rally take market beyond the top established on October 16 or October 3rd?”
The low due in in 2022 means in the year 2022. That is the larger timing profile. The November rally is a timing pattern rather than a price pattern. I do not have a price projection. It is of interest however, in terms of resistance, the high made on the 93% bullish on 10/17 near 2810-2820 may be a target. I think you see the importance of that level. The 10/3 price high is also key of course. My opinion is that would be an amazing reach for the market given the changes in the vibrations of Financial Culture. My expertise is market psychology and market timing. Most people focus just on price which is notoriously seductive.
Another question.“I’m a new subscriber and trying to figure out how the analysis/predictions work. It appears that you (Gary) are providing the short term timing in between the turn dates that Woody is predicting. And then do your trade suggestions eventually come in line with Woodies? Is this an accurate assessment?”
Good questioning. I, have developed an insight over last 40 years. I provide that on my own. The timing work is unique but also subtle. I do not view it as turn dates per se. I study several different scales of time and interface which my sentiment polling history. While I am aware of all the technical systems regarding price, I do not focus on that. Gary does price and he looks at short term patterns as well as seeking confirmation of the price patterns in alignment with my timing and sentiment metrics.
Please email any questions as they are likely to be of interest to all readers and may inspire me to provide more and better answers to the mysteries of the market than I might offer just on my own. info@sentimenttiming.com
MARKET TIMING: The difficulty was parsing the timing of a trading low into the elections. I had allowed price confusion and heaviness but here has never been any defined timing date for this low. There are not always defined dates. Upside was due into Dates Are For Members Only before, “perhaps surprisingly robust downside Dates Are For Members Only It is interesting that there is an important Dates Are For Members Only. In this case, there is a defined timing structure for a high, unlike the low due near here. Actually there are two different but related dates: Dates Are For Members Only. These may comprise a zone of time but are actually near daily indicants and they follow Dates Are For Members Only which is also culminates in some seasonal strength. Stocks are due to fail from there Dates Are For Members Only That may set up another break (wave 5?) to potential new lows with overt divergence into Dates Are For Members Only Let’s get there first and see what is what.
SENTIMENT INTERPRETATION: The Dorsey Tactical Market Sentiment generated an emotional 98% extreme on 9/21. The dramatic bounce into 10/17 generated a 93% Bullish. That price high near the S&P 2820 level remains as Key Resistance. There were back to back 5% & 3% reading on 10/29 and 10/30. That has produced a durable panic low.
The DORSEY Intermediate Market Sentiment seems to have ended its panic decline. It approached the lows of February. It is symptomatic of a contrarian low for now.
MARKET SUMMARY: The trading world has been waiting for a confirmed tactical low. Reality really is, “Making Markets Great Again.” The November recovery rally while being aware that after Dates Are For Members Only the downside does open right up again.
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Trading Instrument I (Gary Uses) My Trading Instruments are all based off of SPX numbers, but for long side trades I use (SSO) the 2x leveraged etf that follows the S&P 500 and when expecting the market to move lower, I use (SDS) the 2x leveraged etf that follows the S&P 500, it moves higher when spx moves lower.
TECHNICAL VIEW by Gary Dean: The SPX continues to confuse most traders. The doom and gloom market outlook by most after Monday’s big reversal down, has now turned into, maybe we saw a low? I am leaving the door open for some choppiness to hit the markets in the coming days until the elections are behind us. If I am wrong, we have a small long position and simply wait until after the elections, let a buy set up show itself and add to the 2675 long position. If I am right and we get a nail biter or some backing and filling into the elections, we wait for a buy set up and add to the 2675 long position. Either way is fine with me.
If the bulls ignore any choppy expectations and just grind higher, 2744 is the next resistance area. Above that line, we should see 2755/2765. I am not sure they have enough fuel left to move above the 2765, but I have seen the bulls run hard on zero fuel. Once we are in the sustained rally mode, I believe we will see the spx close the 2860-2920 gaps before the next top date. But I will see how we are trading as we approach that time period.
The 15 minute chart below shows the secondary short term targets at 2742-2754 and 2765. There are 5 waves up and bearish divergences, so chasing the long side up here is dangerous. I do NOT recommend shorting, even for a scalp trade. Manage long positions and wait for a pull back to add to the position. I would NOT be surprised to see the 2685 gap filled below at some point, but that is NOT a prediction. We could head to 2860 before that gap gets filled. 2707 is the support line I believe bulls will try and defend. If they lose that, then we should close the 2685 gap and maybe even test lower support levels.
The daily chart shows momentum is just turning up now. The bulls have a lot of fuel in the tank and why I am expecting the 2860/2920 gap to get filled at some point.
Summary: The lows look like they are, but I would not chase the long side with new positions up here. There are some bearish divergences on the 15 minute chart and seeing some choppy trading into the elections would be expected. If I am wrong, the bulls may just continue to charge higher. But I will wait until after the elections are behind us to add to the 2675 long position. Be patient!
Sentiment Timing Predictive Analytics Model–Nobody Else Can Do What This Does..They Don’t Have The Tools!!
What does predictive analytics means and how does it work? Sentiment Timings Predictive analytics model is comprised of investor sentiment-market timing turns dates and regular technical analysis. Woody Dorsey, who is considered by many on Wall Street, to be one of the best market timers in the world. He uses over 13 different market timing indicators to predict when the SPX is going to make a top or a bottom, weeks and sometimes months in advance.
You may have heard people talk about investor sentiment, but does anybody really know how to trade from it? The simple answer is NO! Or I should say, not many and the ones who understand how to use sentiment to enter or exit trades, will be the ones closing long positions at the top and moving their portfolio to the short side..and covering short positions at the lows and moving their portfolio to the long side. Sentiment Extremes will ALWAYS be seen at market tops and bottoms..as you can see in the sentiment chart below.
Sentiment Extremes Are Only A Conformation Tool..It Has To Be Combined With Turn Dates And Regular Technical Analysis! This One Of A Kind Combination Is Our Predictive Analytics Model
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What does predictive analytics means and how does it work? Sentiment Timings Predictive analytics model is comprised of investor sentiment-market timing turns dates and regular technical analysis. Woody Dorsey, who is considered by many on Wall Street, to be one of the best market timers in the world.
- TIME: Woody uses over 13 different market timing indicators to predict when the SPX is going to make a top or a bottom, weeks and sometimes months in advance.
- SENTIMENT: Once we have the dates to look for a top/bottom, sentiment will give us the confirmation a turn is about to take place. Sentiment extremes will always take place at tops/bottoms.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Once we have the Time and Sentiment in line for the reversal, our technical analysis determines where to look for price to reverse using wave counts, support/resistance pivots and divergences
Imagine Being Able To Know Exactly When The S&P 500 Is Going To Reverse..Weeks And Sometimes Months In Advance..What Could You Do With This Type Of Information? If It Seems To Good To Be True–Then See For Yourself..You Will Never Look At The Market The Same..I Promise You That!
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