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Comments on Financial Culture: Long live Inflation! Reality will not be Denied. But, Hyperinflation will be? Central Bankers are still
trying to figure out what was already happening. Markets are telling us something we may not hear. I am not surprised. This is still the beginning of a major shift in markets. Large Trends are simply the unfolding of the obvious. The Timing Pattern is still for weakness in Q4.

Meta Market Semiotics: Inflation & Rates are Rising. They knew that but did they really cognize it? Investors don’t understand the historical degree of the corrective process that they are living in. This is more than a War Market. The War, whatever happens, is a metaphor for a fractured Global Financial landscape littered with unknowns

EQUITY STRATEGY: Stocks are having a notable correction. The ‘Lapdance of Liquidity’ initiated an Inflation which may translate into a Hyperinflation. Q3 & Q4 offer another corrective period. Wars never end well nor will 2022.

EQUITY TACTICS: Stocks putting in a dramatic low on 0% bullish today?

GLOBAL EQUITIES: This is still a troubled time. Going Nowhere?

FIXED INCOME: Expected secular “Bull Trap” continues to snap shut.

FOREX: Dollar remains in an expected breakout. It still has a bid bias.

COMMODITIES: Markets “Knew” Inflation was coming. “It isn’t done.” Stuff is just bid. Crypto is stagnant. CRUDE: “Gas is even more bullish.”

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT: Bullish Complacency was abandoned towards the end of last year. Sentiment developed a diverging extreme at end of February. But bounces from there, were exciting but dangerous. Sentiment is again reaching another potential pessimistic nadir.

QQQ Weekly: The Tech Correction is sizable. The degree of this break infers that structural market changes are occurring. The recent price carnage is a real signal. This profile always allowed for Spring bounces to resolve into another period of price declines due later on in this calendar year

TACTICAL SENTIMENT: The DORSEY Market Sentiment generated extremely high bullish sentiment over the last year. Complacency was rife. Now, some harsh declines have produced some mini panics. Now, with a 0% daily reading, a tactical price catharsis may be near.

DAILY EQUITY PROFILE: The IWM has served as a great tell of the internals of the overall equity market. The recovery from February clearly failed. This reinforces the overall bear trend. Still, it may be nearing a time price catharsis for potential 2-3 week of recovery.

GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: German Equities remain corrective. Profiles allow for more of that. Recoveries may occur this Summer but Q3/Q4 is negative. The downside may seem limited. Maybe. Great Bounces in Great Wars are not Great Opportunities. Not yet.

Volatility: (VIX) Profile: VIX came back to life after more testing of its extended base. Upside potential is clearly open. Uncertainty isn’t going away. A profiled Q4, VIX high, may be quite an extreme.

FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: Ho Hum. ‘Rates Rising for Decades.’ Obscene Liquidity was, as expected, structurally negligent. Repeat: “Rate high due near 2024.” Central Bankers can only play games they assume will work. I advised: “Rates going to 3%-3.25%. Be prepared. Inflation still trending.” There was nothing you could do about it.

FIXED INCOME TACTICS: Treasuries remain in a trending function which is best described as simply, going lower. TLT has, just as expected, continued a slow and steady decline. Talking Heads keep explaining what has already happened! Global Tightening is the Reality.

GDX Profiles: Reflation, as suggested, segued into an Hyperinflation. Precious Metals moved as profiles preferred. Noted: “Stuff is generically bid, inferring Gold will be strengthening towards May. I am more cautious as April ages.” A Spike occurred. Defense for awhile. Still, potential for a Fall spike.

FOREX DIAGNOSIS: The Dollar has remained, as expected, in break out mode: “The Rising Rate Reality will support an overt bidding persistence.” The upside is still open. Always hard to diagnose ATHs.

Information is for paid subscribers & may not be copied or distributed. © Copyright 2022. The information contained herein was provided by  Sentiment Timing and/or its publishers does not make any representation or warrant with regard hereto, including but not limited to those of accuracy, completeness, reliability, timeliness and/or infringement on the rights of third parties. This Publication expresses a view on the markets but is not intended to provide any specific recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing is Uncertain and always carries Risk. Of Losses. Subscribers should always assess Market Risk parameters with their broker or financial adviser.

 

MARKET ENVIRONMENT: by Woody Dorsey. Sentiment is coming in today @ 74% Bullish. Markets remain in a bid flow! There are buyers hanging around. They are ignoring, for now, the structural Tightening Campaign which has a long long time to go. The profile is still for a Hyperinflation. But, Stocks remain in an expected Recovery. Is the Ukraine bout between Vladamir & Vladimir already discounted?  Has all of the damage already been done? 

NEAR TERM: Stocks maintain a bid bias as they continue to confirm an interim recovery. They have entered into a lazy indeterminate period but do have upside into late April.

INTERIM TERM: An expected Interim low occurred and the profile remains for an April recovery. There may then develop an extended complex Summer Topping process, B4 a ‘Fall Fall.’

DORSEY MARKET SENTIMENT: Sentiment discovered support after responding to a level of panic pessimism. But sentiment rebounds are already working on registering a new level of optimism. It is becoming a bit frothy again as war stories and rate rises are being discounted.

MARKET SUMMARY: Equity Markets remain under secular pressure but are having a normal price recovery. Central Bankers will be grappling with potential Hyperinflation for some time. Volatility and Uncertainty aren’t going away. Embrace it. An April recovery process continues and may churn into Summer. There will be another leg down after that. War never ends well, nor will, 2022.

 

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The Crypto Flow: The Crypto-Spiracy has been relatively sober of late. Everyone keeps Believing whatever they want to Believe has to happen! Investors still assume they are going to get rich… eventually. Bureaucrats are still discussing their ignorance of the Crypto universe. In other words, the Hypno Crypto PR people are still obsessed with offering any edge which they don’t have. It is best to keep it simple Expected price patterns continue to unfold. Global RISK OFF equity panics resolved into an expected low. Crypto Assets followed along. April was always forecast to be Bullish. So, Crypto now has a window to show what it can do.

Big Pictures are Too Easy: Strength from the Bitcoin Halving of 5/11/20 retains upside potential. That has been looming and expected. But Big Pictures are always louche. They are too easy to talk about and thus assume that someone ‘understands’ what is happening. Don’t believe in any Sure Things. Still my profile for a decent interim rally is happening. Weekly: The Semiotics Crypto structure has not changed. I allowed for, “some seductive shuffling,” B4 a strong April & May B4 a Summer crest.

The Daily Price Pattern: Crypto has escaped their RISK OFF hangover after all of the Global Uncertainty. Hopeful Hucksters have stopped
wringing their hands and are emerging once again as, ‘I told you so’ Holders. The Trading Behavior which is happening is, as usual, not what you
exactly expect it to be happening or even think should be happening. I had posited weeks ago: “Crypto had turned seductively, cryptically corrective.
It is still heavy as it nears the next rally. I noted this price pattern matched the S&P profile which called for a surprising recovery. I expected that all
of this pent up risk appetite would flow back into Crypto assets. It is. The Trading Set Up: The trading profile resolved to the upside.  I allowed: “It isn’t complicated. Buy breaks or reversals, B4 Up into May.” Here we are. Yes, it is still slow and steady. That is Ok.

Information is for paid subscribers & may not be copied or distributed. © Copyright 2022. The information contained herein was provided by  Sentiment Timing and/or its publishers does not make any representation or warrant with regard hereto, including but not limited to those of accuracy, completeness, reliability, timeliness and/or infringement on the rights of third parties. This Publication expresses a view on the markets but is not intended to provide any specific recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing is Uncertain and always carries Risk. Of Losses. Subscribers should always assess Market Risk parameters with their broker or financial adviser.