COMMENTS ON FINANCIAL CULTURE: Is the Game over? Was GameStop the tell? Probably and, Yes. But, as always, a Recognition of the
ramifications of Uncertainty will take more time. Price profiles prefer and allow that markets may maintain some slumbering into May, B4 deeper dives. Attempts to trample Trumpelstiltskin seem about as half baked as buying Finland. There is no better Normal than Reality, whatever it happens to be.
Market Energy(Prana): Complacency was bizarre but interest rate rises are real. The “Summer of Love,” in the Sixties ushered in cultural changes that lasted for decades. This “Winter of Covid,” is also ushering in cultural influences which will last for a long time. The times, they really are “a changing.”
Positions & Perceptions: The “Pain Trade” had just been for blithe bidding as Central Bankers Backstopped any woes. While that Game has not actually Stopped, it is changing. New Uncertainties are forming. You can feel that now.
EQUITY STRATEGY: Several significant indicants are aligned for generic weakness this year: “It may even be historic. There may be several legs and it may be relatively slow to start.” Real Rate rises confirm that the Liquidity meme is “undone.” Patterns allow for a bit more Spring churning B4 a Summer hit.
EQUITY TACTICS: Profiles still allow for more confusing churning in ranges.
GLOBAL EQUITIES: Corrective attempts were muted. Just congestive now?
FIXED INCOME: The 3/9/20 was Ultimate “Bull Trap.” Bouncing now.
FOREX: Dollar has been in, “Unexciting Basing.” It can now go higher.
COMMODITIES: Commodities are “feeling” an Inflation. Gold clearly failed. Digital money is Hard money now. Long live Crypto! It remains relatively bid.
EQUITY STRATEGY: The pattern continues to argue for an important corrective episode this year. Thus, the Liquidity halo will dissemble.
Rate Reality is and will be the real party killer as usual. Note below the pattern of churning complacency. Change is on the way. Takes Time.
Dow Jones Weekly: The Dow has just had an amazing key reversal. Is the fairy tale finally over? Probably, but hope always springs eternal.
Vaccines and stimulus memes may out Game temporarily discounted rising rate realities. Still, a rout down to 26,000/ 28,000 is likely by July.
EQUITY TACTICS: The DORSEY Market Sentiment generated a series of high bullish readings over the last few weeks. This inferred vulnerability which has now been borne out. Now another instance of 1% bullish allowing that an early March low may be in. Churning.
DAILY EQUITY PROFILE: Tactical profiles continue to be messy as obscenely blithe bidding is being met with real Risk Off episodes. While the market is hanging it has not yet signaled any all out exodus. A breach of key support near 3720ish will turn the bigger tide down.
GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY: German Equities had been pressing higher and have held up better than one would expect. But such sideways congestion can also resolve to the downside. Profiles allow that further churning if it continues, will resolve into a heavy Summer.
Volatility: (VIX) Profile: The VIX basically has continued to simmer while respecting amazingly elongated support. Still, given the profile for financial assets, new as yet unmeasured uncertainty is due.
FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: Repeat: “Rates will Rise for Decades.” Obscene Liquidity has been revealed ended. “Initial declines are due into 2024. So don’t get cute even if Central Bankers are playing a clueless game. Headed to 1.5% then 3% ish.” Heck we already got to 1.5% ! Maybe we will pause for a second or two but so what.
FIXED INCOME TACTICS: Treasuries have been a lousy long for longer than bulls believed possible. “The Print High of 3/9 was Ominous, as noted.” Rising Rates finally got recognized. Thus, hard bounces from obvious support are fine. Good luck to you Jerome.
Gold Profiles: The “Mid-August,” High resolved into expected declines but paltry strength flailed. Other metals did so much better! Inflation arrived and Cryptos exploded. All that and Gold only moped around before miserably thudding. Long gold trading ideas clearly failed. Oversold and out of favor.
FOREX DIAGNOSIS: The Dollar had been generically weak for some time as preferred. A basing process has been underway and now, Rate
Reality has seemingly given it a renewed bid. So be it. Profiles now allow that this new recovery trend may persist. Don’t fight the rebound.
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