MARKET ENVIRONMENT: by Woody Dorsey.
Profile remains for bounces into Dates Are For Members Only followed by another bout of weakness Dates Are For Members Only The 10/29 panic low is not inviolate by any means. From the Dates Are For Members Only there is a better profile for strength Dates Are For Members Only. It does look like, as advised the current bounce is some sort of wave 4. Thus headwinds really are headwinds.
- Near Term Diagnosis: Sentiment is 1% Bullish today. As usual, these mega extreme readings resolve into short term reversals. Bounces are normal.
- Interim Term Diagnosis: The 10/29 low was compelling but it is not inviolate. As noted, there is risk of another tactical low near Dates Are For Members Only which means the interim trend is still lower.
- Long Term Diagnosis: Repeat: “Equities have likely registered an important High. The next major Low is due in 2022.”The last month of trade well illustrates what a seduction. Sure it’s a bear market but what is that? It is a market and it moves around a lot and makes investors crazy whether they admit it or not.
QUESTIONS ANYONE? Woody, I have a question. To get low dates or top dates, do you need an event that corresponds with your timing model. If an event does not happen, you can’t determine a low date or a top date. If that is the case, you can only determine of a low or top based on sentiment readings. Is a correct assumption or is there something I am missing. I would appreciate your input. Thank you.
Good questioning. Events or “stories” are never primary in my timing work. I have the timing and then I may note if known events align with it. That can shape a narrative more for readers than for me. Events don’t matter in the conventional sense that the Man or Woman on TV thinks and opines. Often markets will discount a known event before the outcome. Market turns often occur on news that may not be “fundamental” like the top on the death of Bin Laden. It is about the “market energy” or, Prana. That is what moves markets. Humans are programmed to “think” they can figure it out with the rational brain. Sentiment is independent of a timing pattern. Thus when sentiment extremes occur near a timing pattern that is confirming. It often corresponds to some news or story but may not be a scheduled or obvious event. So the idea that the scheduled Dates Are For Members Only with the potential for strength and a reversal there. I saw that weeks ago but it may not be a defining story. Similarly the next trading high will be near Dates Are For Members Only. I do not currently know of any events scheduled then. It is not part of my thinking. If the S&P rallies 300 points into there on whatever story and sentiment is registering extreme optimism, it would fit well with a high.
MARKET TIMING: Upside remains due into Dates Are For Members Only. Downside remains de into Dates Are For Members Only Upside remains due into Dates Are For Members Only That is the generic timing pattern. As noted, the behavior of the last weeks allows that this period of strength into Dates Are For Members Onlymay be part of a wave 4. The tactical trend has been up from the 10/29 low. The interim trend is still corrective. The Dates Are For Members Only, however they manifest, is better profiled for a rally into Dates Are For Members Only
SENTIMENT INTERPRETATION: The Dorsey Tactical Market Sentiment has been very active over the last month. I said “The bounce into 10/17 on 93% Bullish identifies the 2820 level as Key Resistance.” The 3% reading on 10/29 produced a panic low. The rally generated a 91% Bullish. Stocks failed again and just registered a 1% Bullish.
The DORSEY Intermediate Market Sentiment registered a panic extreme near the area of the February lows. But it is not clear that the low is anything like that one. The interim trend may still be down so optimism is unwarranted.
MARKET SUMMARY: The profiled recovery “may persist by fits and starts into Dates Are For Members Only.” That will be followed by a decline into Dates Are For Members Only followed by a typical rally Dates Are For Members Only. It is a traders market. Don’t believe anything except that the Market has Changed.
Trading Instrument (Gary Uses) My Trading Instruments are all based off of SPX numbers, but for long side trades I use (SSO) the 2x leveraged etf that follows the S&P 500 and when expecting the market to move lower, I use (SDS) the 2x leveraged etf that follows the S&P 500, it moves higher when spx moves lower.
TECHNICAL VIEW by Gary Dean: Last week we saw the bears get their faces ripped off, which ended right at resistance and with the majority starting to believe this was real. This week is digestion time to burn off the bearish divergences as well as overbought conditions we had in place. That may have been fulfilled today, but their is still the chance that we need to test the 2709-2688 before the low is in place. That is not a guarantee and if you look at the daily chart below, you will clearly see the inverted head/shoulders pattern forming.
If it plays out the target would be near the 3030. I do NOT believe that will play out, but can you see how the next high will trap the majority AGAIN? Inverted h/s pattern-Santa Rally ect. For now, I am on there side and do believe we will see 2920 before all is said and done. But we may not see that target hit until the 2nd low/high comes into play from 12/20-ish into 1/22. Let’s cross that bridge when we get there. 2880 is the first target on the upside for this rally and what I will concentrate on as we move forward.
Support has turned into resistance and now the bulls need to get above the 2757-2765 resistance zone to get momentum going again. Once above 2765, 2780 should come quickly and then 2800. There are bullish divergences in place, which is hinting the lows may be in place.
The daily chart shows the inverted head/shoulders I was talking about. We still could move lower some more before finding a low and keep this pattern in play. I don’t believe the 3000+ target for the pattern will come into play, but let’s cross that bridge at a later time. Momentum is just turning up and the bulls have plenty of gas in the tank.
Summary: The lows may very well be in place. A move above 2755 is a technical buy, which is exactly where I took my first block on the long side. I am going to wait for a trade above 2760 to grab another 1/3, but one could use 2755. I will hold the last 1/3 in cash in case they need to test the lows again. But I think today gap higher and head fake lower and now up strongly, was the trap that caught some more bears and now they will have to pay.
Information is for paid subscribers & may not be copied or distributed. © Copyright 2018. The information contained herein was provided by Sentiment Timing and/or its publishers does not make any representation or warrant with regard hereto, including but not limited to those of accuracy, completeness, reliability, timeliness and/or infringement on the rights of third parties. This Publication expresses a view on the markets but is not intended to provide any specific recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing is Uncertain and always carries Risk. Of Losses. Subscribers should always assess Market Risk parameters with their broker or financial adviser. Information is for paid customers and may not be copied or distributed Copyright 2018
Sentiment Timing Predictive Analytics Model–Nobody Else Can Do What This Does..They Don’t Have The Tools!!
What does predictive analytics means and how does it work? Sentiment Timings Predictive analytics model is comprised of investor sentiment-market timing turns dates and regular technical analysis. Woody Dorsey, who is considered by many on Wall Street, to be one of the best market timers in the world. He uses over 13 different market timing indicators to predict when the SPX is going to make a top or a bottom, weeks and sometimes months in advance.
You may have heard people talk about investor sentiment, but does anybody really know how to trade from it? The simple answer is NO! Or I should say, not many and the ones who understand how to use sentiment to enter or exit trades, will be the ones closing long positions at the top and moving their portfolio to the short side..and covering short positions at the lows and moving their portfolio to the long side. Sentiment Extremes will ALWAYS be seen at market tops and bottoms..as you can see in the sentiment chart below.
Sentiment Extremes Are Only A Conformation Tool..It Has To Be Combined With Turn Dates And Regular Technical Analysis! This One Of A Kind Combination Is Our Predictive Analytics Model
What does predictive analytics means and how does it work? Sentiment Timings Predictive analytics model is comprised of investor sentiment-market timing turns dates and regular technical analysis. Woody Dorsey, who is considered by many on Wall Street, to be one of the best market timers in the world.
- TIME: Woody uses over 13 different market timing indicators to predict when the SPX is going to make a top or a bottom, weeks and sometimes months in advance.
- SENTIMENT: Once we have the dates to look for a top/bottom, sentiment will give us the confirmation a turn is about to take place. Sentiment extremes will always take place at tops/bottoms.
- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Once we have the Time and Sentiment in line for the reversal, our technical analysis determines where to look for price to reverse using wave counts, support/resistance pivots and divergences
Imagine Being Able To Know Exactly When The S&P 500 Is Going To Reverse..Weeks And Sometimes Months In Advance..What Could You Do With This Type Of Information? If It Seems To Good To Be True–Then See For Yourself..You Will Never Look At The Market The Same..I Promise You That!
Information is for paid subscribers & may not be copied or distributed. © Copyright 2018. The information contained herein was provided by Sentiment Timing and/or its publishers does not make any representation or warrant with regard hereto, including but not limited to those of accuracy, completeness, reliability, timeliness and/or infringement on the rights of third parties. This Publication expresses a view on the markets but is not intended to provide any specific recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing is Uncertain and always carries Risk. Of Losses. Subscribers should always assess Market Risk parameters with their broker or financial adviser.