03/05/15 Sentiment Timing Report2

GLOBAL MARKET COMMENTS by Woody Dorsey: Stocks continued their “slow motion breakout” as I expected. The 93% Bullish on 3/3 signified topping. Moreover, “Markets were on the cusp of the projected High. My Timing studies can indicate when Stocks might make a big move and when they may be quiet! Quantitative time (Market Motion) is different than Qualitative Time (Market Energy.) This week suggested a peak with potential reversal energy. That seems to be happening but some minor upside on the obvious ECB move was typical and to be expected. Next week holds the promise of becoming potentially virulent.  

Stocks have needed, within their Breakout pattern, a potentially scary shake out before another move higher. That secondary rally could come after 3/14 or more cogently after 3/20ish. Breakouts are actually Boring and Seductive. Traders tend not to Believe them. We generally prefer Breakdowns but expect them too often.

MARKET TIMING ANALYSIS:  Near term Timing Profiles allowed for minor setbacks before a drift higher into month end. Then, there was: This profile proffered the “Potential” for declines from 3/4-5 into 3/11-16.” Fridays Jobs Data holds the best promise of ratifying any technical Reversal. Stocks could get heavy in a hurry after that. Trade around 3/11ish could be dramatic.

RELATED MARKET “TELLS”: What I am “looking” at, and “listening”  to, for S&P insights: Precious Metals and Dollar Behavior have continued to support some Deflationary winds. Stock and Bond Behavior still suggests that Bonds can fall at the expense of Stocks. Initially, they could both go down together.

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SENTIMENT INTERPRETATION: The 2/2 Reversal on 90% Bullish was a significant price pivot. It inferred an eventual Breakout. Now, it appears that an initial high is in place. The 92% of 3/3 occurred on the cusp of an expected High! Stocks are now rolling over. The sentiment pattern argued for limited upside and real downside potential into 3/11-14.

INTERMEDIATE TERM SENTIMENT:  Intermediate term Sentiment “rallied” from relatively low levels. This “supports the importance of the 2/2 Low.” The profile suggests some much needed Declines B4 further Upside tries.

TECHNICAL VIEW by Gary Dean:  The SPX found support right at the 2090 support zone identified Tuesday. Being it got there so quickly, the door is left wide open for a push down to the support zone 2-which is around 2070. If the bulls can continue higher and ignore the turn date timezone-then it would be labeled as a wave 4 complete. But upside would be limited and only open the door to a deeper pullback once they complete that push up.

For now, the best fit when looking at pattern-technicals and sentiment, is the bounce now will fail and the SPX will head down to the 2070 area. Watch the 2105/2110 resistance zone to hold down this bounce. 

Information is for paid subscribers & may not be copied or distributed. © Copyright 2015. The information contained herein was provided by Sentiment Timing and/or its publishers does not make any representation or warrant with regard hereto, including but not limited to those of accuracy, completeness, reliability, timeliness and/or infringement on the rights of third parties. This Publication expresses a view on the markets but is not intended to provide any specific recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing is Uncertain and always carries Risk. Of Losses. Subscribers should always assess Market Risk parameters with their broker or financial advisor.