MARKET ENVIRONMENT: by Woody Dorsey. Sentiment is coming in today @ 7% Bullish. This pattern may set up for a quick rally. Again: This is still Bear Market Behavior. War continues to be waged. This fits with the previously profiled risk of a Hyperinflation. A potential trading low is nearing, as profiled. Now, as noted, I still see 4/4ish as a final trading time target. So, give it a bit more time. Wars never end well and they never end in anyone’s expected time frame.
NEAR TERM: To repeat the profile: “This is a Risk Off market. March may bring a catharsis. Erratic weakness is still possible near term.” Indeed. “Stocks need further formation before believable upside occurs.” Give it until month and quarter end.
INTERIM TERM: An initial Interim low is nearing but not yet definitive. This period of weakness is due to get mopped up over the next few weeks. That profile still allows for an expected April recovery. There are some Summer Time Top targets B4 a ‘Fall Fall.’ Wars never end well and 2022 will not end well. The degree of price weakness which has already occurred, signals that a larger corrective process may last for some time.
SECULAR STRUCTURE: Global Tightening. Hyperinflation. Economic Wars. Military Wars. Climate Changes. Extreme moves in Metals, Oil, Coffee, Corn, you name it. Yes, Stocks too. The end of an easy era is over. New corrective strategies are far from old.
DORSEY MARKET SENTIMENT: Bullish Sentiment had been overly optimistic for a long, long, too long, time. Sentiment is trying to discover what degree of sentiment is required to achieve a definite interim low. We are getting close but the pattern allows for another week or so.
MARKET SUMMARY: Equity Markets remain under real pressure. Central Bankers did not imagine they were fostering a Hyperinflation. They all made a mistake. Don’t Deny Hyperinflation. Volatility remains in charge. A trading low is forming but could still have another spike down in coming days. Enjoy it. this is a real market. War never ends well. 2022 won’t either.
TECHNICAL VIEW by Gary Dean: The roller coaster ride continues as the bears keep waiting for the big one to set the next crash into gear and the bulls are trying to generate a rally that last more than a few hours. The one thing I have been warning about, is to not get too bear-ed up. Everyone is looking down and the door was/is open for a massive short squeeze. It would make perfect sense to see a crash, but when the majority are expecting a crash, the odds of that happening are very low. Nothing has changed on my charts, even with the big moves up/down/ The new major bull/bear line is at 4467-ish as the death cross is hitting today (50 dma crosses below the 200dma) I personally never really looked at that, but many traders do-and that has the intermediate term momentum on the side of the bears. But trading the long side for a move from 4160 to 4460 is not a bad trade.
I am seeing a possible double bottom pattern here and that is obviously what the bears need to break through to see momo pick back up again. The 4300 is upside resistance and if the bulls can cause a squeeze above that line, we should see a quick move up to the 4460 fairly fast. The bulls do have the “uncertainty card” of the Fed announcement tomorrow.
Summary: We are seeing a nice rally today which I have been warning about. Even with the big down days, the important 4160 was not taken out. The uncertainty card of the Fed may keep the bears on their heals today and we have option expiration Friday. Expect big moves in both directions, but I still like 4460 as the next target. G
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